Optimal Auditing for Insurance Fraud

This article aims at making a bridge between the theory of optimal auditing and current procedures applied to audit files in different markets where scoring is the instrument used to implement an audit strategy. The literature has not yet developed an optimal audit policy for the scoring methodology. Our application is meant for the audit of insurance fraud but can be applied to many other activities that use the scoring approach. On the theoretical side, we show that the optimal auditing strategy takes the form of a "Red Flags Strategy" which consists in referring claims to a Special Investigation Unit (SIU) when certain fraud indicators are observed. Fraud indicators are classified based on the degree to which they reveal an increasing probability of fraud and this strategy remains optimal if the investigation policy is budget constrained. Moreover, the auditing policy acts as a deterrence device. On the empirical side, four significant results are obtained with data from a large European insurance company. First, we are able to compute a critical suspicion index for fraud, providing a threshold above which all claims must be audited. Secondly, we obtain that if the insur applies this policy, he will save more than euro22 milllion, which represents 43% of the current cost of fraudulent claims. Thirdly, we show that it is possible to improve these results by using information capable of isolating different groups of insureds with different morale costs of fraud. Finally, our results indicate how the deterrence effect of the audit scheme can be taken into account and how it affects the optimal auditing strategy.Optimal audit, scoring methodology, insurance fraud, red flags strategy, fraud indicators, suspicion index, morale cost of fraud

Optimal Auditing with Scoring Theory and Application to Insurance Fraud

Cet article établit une liaison entre la théorie de l'audit optimal et la méthodologie du scoring dans un contexte d'asymétrie d'information. L'application retenue concerne la fraude à l'assurance, mais la même approche peut être appliquée à d'autres activités qui utilisent le scoring. Nous montrons que la stratégie et l'audit optimal consistent à transmettre les demandes d'indemnité à une cellule antifraude lorsque certains indicateurs de fraude sont observés. Les indicateurs de fraude sont classés en fonction d'une probabilité de fraude croissante. Une telle stratégie demeure optimale lorsque la politique d'enquête est budgétairement contrainte. De plus, la politique d'audit agit comme un mécanisme de dissuasion et nous expliquons pourquoi elle nécessite un engagement de l'assureur et comment elle devrait affecter les incitations financières du personnel de la cellule antifraude. Le modèle est calibré avec les données d'un grand assureur européen. Nous calculons une valeur critique d'un indice de suspicion de fraude qui fournit un seuil au delà duquel toutes les demandes d'indemnité doivent être soumises à audit et nous évaluons le gain potentiel qui pourrait être dérivé de la politique d'audit optimal. Nous montrons qu'il est possible d'améliorer ces résultats en séparant différents groupes d'assurés avec des coûts psychologiques de fraude différents. Enfin nos résultats montrent comment l'effet de dissuasion peut être pris en compte et comment il affecte la stratégie optimale d'audit.

Optimal auditing with scoring: theory and application to insurance fraud

This article makes a bridge between the theory of optimal auditing and the scoring methodology in an asymmetric information setting. Our application is meant for insurance claims fraud, but it can be applied to many other activities that use the scoring approach. Fraud signals are classified based on the degree to which they reveal an increasing probability of fraud. We show that the optimal auditing strategy takes the form of a “Red Flags Strategy” which consists in referring claims to a Special Investigative Unit (SIU) when certain fraud indicators are observed. The auditing policy acts as a deterrence device and we explain why it requires the commitment of the insurer and how it should affect the incentives of SIU staffs. The characterization of the optimal auditing strategy is robust to some degree of signal manipulation by defrauders as well as to the imperfect information of defrauders about the audit frequency. The model is calibrated with data from a large European insurance company. We show that it is possible to improve our results by separating different groups of insureds with different moral costs of fraud. Finally, our results indicate how the deterrence effect of the audit scheme can be taken into account and how it affects the optimal auditing strategy.Audit, scoring, insurance fraud, red flags strategy, fraud indicators, suspicion index, moral cost of fraud, deterrence effect, signal manipulation.

Optimal Auditing with Scoring Theory and Application to Insurance Fraud

This article makes a bridge between the theory of optimal auditing and the scoring methodology in an asymmetric information setting. Our application is meant for asurance claims fraud, but it can be applied to many other activities that use the scoring approach. We show that the optimal auditing strategy takes the form of a "Red Flags Strategy" which consists in referring claims to a Special Investigative unit (SIU) when certain fraud indicators are observed. Fraud indicators are classified based on the degree to which they reveal an increasing probability of fraud. This strategy remains optimal even when the investigation policy is budget constrained. Moreover, the auditing policy acts as a deterrence device and we explain why it requires the commitment of the insurer and how it should affect the incentives of SIU staffs. the models is calibrated with data from a large European insurance company. We compute a critical suspicion index for fraud, providing a threshold above which all claims must be audited and we estimate the potential gain that could be derived from the optimal auditing policy. We show that it is possible to improve these results by separating different groups of insureds with different moral costs of fraud. Finally, our results indicate how the deterrence effect of the audit scheme can be taken into account and how it affects the optimal auditing strategy.Cet article établit une liaison entre la théorie de l'audit optimal et la méthodologie du scoring dans un contexte d'asymétrie d'information. L'application retenue concerne la fraude à l'assurance, mais la même approche peut être appliquée à d'autres activités qui utilisent le scoring. Nous montrons que la stratégie et l'audit optimal consistent à transmettre les demandes d'indemnité à une cellule antifraude lorsque certains indicateurs de fraude sont observés. Les indicateurs de fraude sont classés en fonction d'une probabilité de fraude croissante. Une telle stratégie demeure optimale lorsque la politique d'enquête est budgétairement contrainte. De plus, la politique d'audit agit comme un mécanisme de dissuasion et nous expliquons pourquoi elle nécessite un engagement de l'assureur et comment elle devrait affecter les incitations financières du personnel de la cellule antifraude. Le modèle est calibré avec les données d'un grand assureur européen. Nous calculons une valeur critique d'un indice de suspicion de fraude qui fournit un seuil au delà duquel toutes les demandes d'indemnité doivent être soumises à audit et nous évaluons le gain potentiel qui pourrait être dérivé de la politique d'audit optimal. Nous montrons qu'il est possible d'améliorer ces résultats en séparant différents groupes d'assurés avec des coûts psychologiques de fraude différents. Enfin nos résultats montrent comment l'effet de dissuasion peut être pris en compte et comment il affecte la stratégie optimale d'audit

Optimal auditing with scoring: theory and application to insurance fraud

This article makes a bridge between the theory of optimal auditing and the scoring methodology in an asymmetric information setting. Our application is meant for insurance claims fraud, but it can be applied to many other activities that use the scoring approach. Fraud signals are classified based on the degree to which they reveal an increasing probability of fraud. We show that the optimal auditing strategy takes the form of a “Red Flags Strategy” which consists in referring claims to a Special Investigative Unit (SIU) when certain fraud indicators are observed. The auditing policy acts as a deterrence device and we explain why it requires the commitment of the insurer and how it should affect the incentives of SIU staffs. The characterization of the optimal auditing strategy is robust to some degree of signal manipulation by defrauders as well as to the imperfect information of defrauders about the audit frequency. The model is calibrated with data from a large European insurance company. We show that it is possible to improve our results by separating different groups of insureds with different moral costs of fraud. Finally, our results indicate how the deterrence effect of the audit scheme can be taken into account and how it affects the optimal auditing strategy

Optimal auditing with scoring: theory and application to insurance fraud

This article makes a bridge between the theory of optimal auditing and the scoring methodology in an asymmetric information setting. Our application is meant for insurance claims fraud, but it can be applied to many other activities that use the scoring approach. Fraud signals are classified based on the degree to which they reveal an increasing probability of fraud. We show that the optimal auditing strategy takes the form of a “Red Flags Strategy” which consists in referring claims to a Special Investigative Unit (SIU) when certain fraud indicators are observed. The auditing policy acts as a deterrence device and we explain why it requires the commitment of the insurer and how it should affect the incentives of SIU staffs. The characterization of the optimal auditing strategy is robust to some degree of signal manipulation by defrauders as well as to the imperfect information of defrauders about the audit frequency. The model is calibrated with data from a large European insurance company. We show that it is possible to improve our results by separating different groups of insureds with different moral costs of fraud. Finally, our results indicate how the deterrence effect of the audit scheme can be taken into account and how it affects the optimal auditing strategy

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Epidemiology of HPV genotypes in Uganda and the role of the current preventive vaccines: A systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Limited data are available on the distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes in the general population and in invasive cervical cancer (ICC) in Uganda. Yet, with the advent of preventive HPV vaccines that target HPV 16 and 18 responsible for causing about 70% of ICC cases in the world, such information is crucial to predict how vaccination and HPV-based screening will influence prevention of ICC.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To review the distribution of HPV infection and prevalent genotypes, electronic databases (e.g. PubMed/MEDLINE and HINARI) were searched for peer reviewed English articles on HPV infection up to November 30, 2010. Eligible studies were selected according to the following criteria: DNA-confirmed cervical or male genital HPV prevalence and genotypes, HPV incidence estimates and HPV seroprevalence among participants.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty studies were included in the review. Among HIV negative adult women, the prevalence of HR-HPV infections ranged from 10.2% -40.0% compared to 37.0% -100.0% among HIV positive women. Among HIV positive young women aged below 25 years, the prevalence of HR-HPV genotypes ranged from 41.6% -75.0% compared to 23.7% -67.1% among HIV negative women. Multiple infections with non vaccine HR-HPV genotypes were frequent in both HIV positive and HIV negative women. The main risk factors for prevalent HPV infections were age, lifetime number of sexual partners and HIV infection. Incident infections with HR-HPV genotypes were more frequent among adult HIV positive than HIV negative women estimated at 17.3 and 7.0 per 100 person-years, respectively. Similarly, incident HR-HPV among young women aged below 25 years were more frequent among HIV positive (40.0 per 100 person-years) than HIV negative women (20.3 per 100 person-years) women. The main risk factor for incident infection was HIV infection. HPV 16 and 18 were the most common genotypes in ICC with HPV 16/18 contributing up to 73.5% of cases with single infections.</p> <p>Among uncircumcised adult HIV positive males, HR-HPV prevalence ranged from 55.3% -76.6% compared to 38.6% -47.6% in HIV negative males. Incident and multiple HR-HPV infections were frequent in HIV positive males. Being uncircumcised was the main risk factor for both prevalent and incident HPV infection.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Infections with HR-HPV genotypes were very common particularly among HIV positive individuals and young women irrespective of HIV status. Given the high prevalence of HIV infection, HPV-associated conditions represent a major public health burden in Uganda. However, although the most common HPV genotypes in ICC cases in Uganda were those targeted by current preventive vaccines, there were a large number of individuals infected with other HR-HPV genotypes. Technology allowing, these other HR-HPV types should be considered in the development of the next generation of vaccines.</p

Frontotemporal dementia and its subtypes: a genome-wide association study

SummaryBackground Frontotemporal dementia (FTD) is a complex disorder characterised by a broad range of clinical manifestations, differential pathological signatures, and genetic variability. Mutations in three genes—MAPT, GRN, and C9orf72—have been associated with FTD. We sought to identify novel genetic risk loci associated with the disorder. Methods We did a two-stage genome-wide association study on clinical FTD, analysing samples from 3526 patients with {FTD} and 9402 healthy controls. To reduce genetic heterogeneity, all participants were of European ancestry. In the discovery phase (samples from 2154 patients with {FTD} and 4308 controls), we did separate association analyses for each {FTD} subtype (behavioural variant FTD, semantic dementia, progressive non-fluent aphasia, and {FTD} overlapping with motor neuron disease FTD-MND), followed by a meta-analysis of the entire dataset. We carried forward replication of the novel suggestive loci in an independent sample series (samples from 1372 patients and 5094 controls) and then did joint phase and brain expression and methylation quantitative trait loci analyses for the associated (p&lt;5 × 10−8) single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Findings We identified novel associations exceeding the genome-wide significance threshold (p&lt;5 × 10−8). Combined (joint) analyses of discovery and replication phases showed genome-wide significant association at 6p21.3, \{HLA\} locus (immune system), for rs9268877 (p=1·05 × 10−8; odds ratio=1·204 95% \{CI\} 1·11–1·30), rs9268856 (p=5·51 × 10−9; 0·809 0·76–0·86) and rs1980493 (p value=1·57 × 10−8, 0·775 0·69–0·86) in the entire cohort. We also identified a potential novel locus at 11q14, encompassing RAB38/CTSC (the transcripts of which are related to lysosomal biology), for the behavioural \{FTD\} subtype for which joint analyses showed suggestive association for rs302668 (p=2·44 × 10−7; 0·814 0·71–0·92). Analysis of expression and methylation quantitative trait loci data suggested that these loci might affect expression and methylation in cis. Interpretation Our findings suggest that immune system processes (link to 6p21.3) and possibly lysosomal and autophagy pathways (link to 11q14) are potentially involved in FTD. Our findings need to be replicated to better define the association of the newly identified loci with disease and to shed light on the pathomechanisms contributing to FTD. Funding The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and National Institute on Aging, the Wellcome/MRC Centre on Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's Research UK, and Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center